What is becoming technically possible
Papers, preprints, clinical trials, patents, citations, and lab-to-market signals.
The data layer behind the calls
Vaticinus maps the evidence behind a forecast before the model takes a side. The point is not a big corpus number. It is checking the right parts of the world.
What the system checks
Every forecast is routed through the evidence that should move first if the thesis is true. These are the checks, not a vanity count.
What cannot scale on demand
Trade flows, mineral data, component capacity, shipping routes, and supplier concentration.
What is actually getting built
Permits, interconnection queues, project filings, land records, and construction evidence.
Where the market has already priced it
Public filings, prices, funding rounds, procurement language, and capex commitments.
Where rules move the constraint
Export controls, sanctions, subsidies, procurement rules, and licensing bottlenecks.
Whether the thesis is becoming true
Resolved events, price anchors, production data, disclosure changes, and kill signals.
How the data changes the call
The substrate is a constraint map. It tells the forecaster where the bottleneck lives, who owns it, whether supply can answer price, and what observation would make the claim fail.
No prompt-only answers
The answer has to touch source data before it becomes a forecast.
No stale evidence
Dates matter because forecasts are only real before the outcome.
No unpriced edge
If the market already sees the constraint, the call is not useful.
The source families
The same call may need scientific evidence, supply-chain evidence, market evidence, and policy evidence on one page.
papers and preprintspatents and assigneespermits and docketsfilings and disclosurestrade and customsmarket pricespolicy and sanctionsclimate and earth systemsclinical and health datapublic forecast boardsentity and ownership graphsresolved outcomes
Research tier
Work with usBring your own mandate
Ask a question about a sector, supply chain, or policy shock. We point the data layer at the sources that should move first, then turn the evidence into a forecast you can monitor.
Data checks are evidence inputs, not investment advice.
Work with us
Point the engine at your mandate
The chat gives you our standing read in seconds. A commission points the whole research team and the leak-free engine at one question you actually trade on: where the binding constraint sits, whether it is already priced, and the dated signal to watch.
Built for funds and macro desks who want the call before it is consensus. You get the full reasoning and the line that would prove it wrong, so you can size it yourself.
Thesis
A dated thesis, not a take
One sub-industry, the binding constraint named, a probability with an interval, and the date it resolves.
Evidence
The data layer behind it
Research, patents, trade flows, and a live price channel, so the call rests on a constraint you can actually measure.
Watch
A kill-criterion you can watch
Every call names what would make it wrong and the signal to watch for it, so you can track the position as it plays out.
Mapping the future world
Read the public record, or commission a mandate-specific map.
