VaticinusHeadline or lead exists, but public records are not strong enough for underwriting.
Forecasts
Time-to-Energize Truth
A source-grade ledger for separating powered AI campuses from capacity announcements still waiting on interconnection, permit, and service evidence.
Rejection criteria make the ledger useful.
A row is not power-secured unless MW, counterparty, power path, tariff or interconnection treatment, permits, and commissioning evidence survive official review.
Official or public sources conflict, or a critical gate remains unresolved.
A credible source supports part of the claim, but official records still determine underwriting status.
Evidence audit
Receipts are evidence, not endorsement.
Each project row carries receipts, but a receipt does not promote the claim by itself. Status changes only when official records close the open gate.
Named project ledger
Each row carries source tier, status, demotion reason, next docket or watch date, and the buyer action it changes.
01
PJM, VirginiaNot decision-grade
Amazon / Dominion North Anna SMR
MOU-stage evidence is a watchlist lead, not a project with decision-grade energization proof.
Claimed capacity
At least 300 MW exploratory.
Source tier
Tier 4 lead only
Status
MOU lead
Demotion reason
Exploration does not yet prove SCC, NRC, design, service, or COD evidence.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Dominion / Amazon SMR exploration
Buyer action
Do not underwrite as power-secured; keep as a watchlist lead.
02
Texas private gridNot decision-grade
Fermi America Project Matador
Large headline MW requires unusually strict source handling before buyer use.
Claimed capacity
11 GW claimed.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
headline MW unverified
Demotion reason
Anchor tenant, TCEQ/NRC path, gas, cooling, and financing remain public-record gaps.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19NRC new-reactor page
Buyer action
Treat as a large lead until official permit, tenant, and financing spine is source-grade.
03
PJM, PennsylvaniaNot decision-grade
Homer City Energy Campus
Official site ambition exists, but the full power-secured claim is not decision-grade on current public records.
Claimed capacity
Up to 4.4-4.5 GW.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
visible demotion
Demotion reason
Tenant/offtake, PA DEP appeal posture, gas capacity, and interconnection proof remain unresolved.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Pennsylvania DEP project page
Buyer action
Demote from power-secured sample until tenant, permit, gas, and interconnection gates close.
04
PJM / AEP OhioNot decision-grade
NEO Power Gen
Public meeting notice is a lead, not decision-grade source support.
Claimed capacity
500 MW proposed.
Source tier
Tier 4 lead only
Status
public-meeting lead
Demotion reason
Formal OPSB filing, offtake, gas/BESS design, emissions, and COD evidence are missing.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19OPSB public-information meeting
Buyer action
Keep as a lead until formal filings and source-grade offtake emerge.
05
PJM, PennsylvaniaContested
AWS / Talen Susquehanna
Commercially real asset and strategic deal, but not clean proof of power-secured campus capacity.
Claimed capacity
300-480 MW disputed load treatment; broader MW not verified here.
Source tier
Tier 1 official
Status
contested official asset
Demotion reason
Replacement ISA and tariff path, backup service, and cost allocation remain decision-relevant gates.
Next docket / watch date
2026-08-17ER24-2172 and PJM co-location filings
Buyer action
Do not treat as clean power-secured proof until the replacement path is verified.
06
Mississippi / TennesseeContested
xAI Southaven / Colossus turbines
Public record supports a live power-permitting controversy, not clean energized-MW proof.
Claimed capacity
41 turbines; MW not primary-verified here.
Source tier
Tier 1 official
Status
air permit contested
Demotion reason
Air permit, litigation, temporary-versus-permanent status, delivered MW, and grid/fuel path remain contested.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19MDEQ permit-board minutes
Buyer action
Track as contested behind-the-meter and temporary-to-permanent power row.
07
PJM, OhioSource verified
AEP Ohio / Bloom / AWS Hilliard fuel cells
Concrete bridge-power pattern, only partially quantified until PUCO and second-site records are extracted.
Claimed capacity
72.9 MW AWS row; Cologix unknown.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
local plus company MW partial
Demotion reason
PUCO order, local record, commissioning status, gas supply, and Cologix MW remain unresolved.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19AEP Scioto Darby Creek project
Buyer action
Verify PUCO/local record and commissioning status before buyer use.
08
PJM, OhioSource verified
Amazon / AES Ohio 345-kV service
Cleaner official planning anchor than splashier behind-the-meter claims.
Claimed capacity
65 MW COD to 480 MW Phase I.
Source tier
Tier 1 official
Status
RTO planning anchor
Demotion reason
Still needs ESA, PUCO/OPSB, network upgrade cost, and COD verification before campus underwriting.
Next docket / watch date
2026-08-20PJM AES Ohio data-center presentation
Buyer action
Use as cleaner official planning anchor; verify service agreement and COD.
09
WashingtonSource verified
Amazon / Energy Northwest / X-energy Cascade
Named strategic SMR path, still pre-license and not buyer-grade firm supply.
Claimed capacity
320 MW first phase; option for 960 MW.
Source tier
Tier 3 claim evidence
Status
SMR pre-license
Demotion reason
Purchase rights and project ambition need licensing and construction evidence before promotion.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Cascade Advanced Energy Facility
Buyer action
Monitor licensing and construction before treating as firm supply.
10
PJM / AEP OhioSource verified
Apollo Power Generation
Strong approved gas-plus-storage comparison row, with customer identity still the first buyer question.
Claimed capacity
350 MW gas plus about 120 MW BESS.
Source tier
Tier 1 official
Status
BTM approved comparator
Demotion reason
Liames/end customer, Ohio EPA, gas pipelines, staged COD, and battery operation still condition underwriting.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Ohio OPSB construction authorization
Buyer action
Use as positive BTM comparator, but condition on customer and permit closure.
11
PJM, PennsylvaniaSource verified
Constellation / Microsoft Crane Clean Energy Center
Strong firm-power procurement evidence, not direct proof that a named campus can energize faster.
Claimed capacity
835 MW nuclear restart.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
restart pending NRC
Demotion reason
Keep separate from campus energization until NRC restart, PJM deliverability, and physical delivery treatment are clearer.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19DOE/NRC restart record
Buyer action
Use as firm-power procurement proof, not behind-the-meter campus proof.
12
PJM, VirginiaSource verified
Dominion Culpeper Tech Zone
Strong load-growth proof case; buyer question is which campus has real service rights.
Claimed capacity
188 MW by 2028 and 1,164 MW by 2034 in SCC materials.
Source tier
Tier 1 official
Status
utility regulatory, customer unresolved
Demotion reason
Aggregate utility planning must be mapped to named campuses, service agreements, and local approvals.
Next docket / watch date
2026-08-20Dominion SCC application
Buyer action
Map delivery points to county approvals and developers.
13
PJM / United StatesSource verified
Google / Brookfield hydro framework
High-quality dispatchable clean-energy procurement evidence, with delivery details still open.
Claimed capacity
670 MW initial; up to 3,000 MW framework.
Source tier
Tier 3 claim evidence
Status
framework follow-up
Demotion reason
Framework capacity is not the same as verified energizable site MW.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Brookfield / Google hydro framework
Buyer action
Use as clean-power PPA proof with delivery follow-up.
14
TVA, TennesseeSource verified
Google / Kairos / TVA Hermes 2
Strategic advanced-nuclear row, not near-term campus power proof.
Claimed capacity
50 MW first plant; up to 500 MW fleet.
Source tier
Tier 3 claim evidence
Status
advanced nuclear, long dated
Demotion reason
NRC, TVA, construction, and PPA execution remain the actual time-to-energize chain.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Google / Kairos / TVA collaboration
Buyer action
Treat as long-dated strategic energy claim, not near-term campus proof.
15
ERCOT, TexasSource verified
Lancium / Crusoe Abilene
Positive delivery comparator, but live initial MW and later staged claims must be split.
Claimed capacity
200 MW initial; 1.2-2.1 GW company claims.
Source tier
Tier 3 claim evidence
Status
company verified, records pending
Demotion reason
Company claims need ERCOT, TCEQ, onsite gas, and energized-versus-staged evidence before full promotion.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Crusoe Abilene expansion
Buyer action
Split live initial MW from later staged claims.
16
MISO, IllinoisSource verified
Meta / Constellation Clinton
Evidence of firm nuclear procurement, not evidence that a specific AI campus can energize faster.
Claimed capacity
1,121 MW announcement; Clinton reactor lists up to 1,092 MW before uprate context.
Source tier
Tier 3 claim evidence
Status
nuclear PPA, not campus power
Demotion reason
Clean-energy procurement and site energization are different claims.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Constellation PPA announcement
Buyer action
Separate clean-energy procurement from campus energization.
17
PJM, Ohio/PennsylvaniaSource verified
Meta / Vistra Perry, Davis-Besse, Beaver Valley
Useful clean-power and uprate exposure, not proof of new campus commissioning.
Claimed capacity
2,176 MW existing plus 433 MW uprates.
Source tier
Tier 3 claim evidence
Status
clean power uprate pending
Demotion reason
Uprate approvals, dates, and Meta-linked delivery path still determine buyer-grade value.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Vistra and Meta agreement
Buyer action
Track as clean power and uprate exposure, not proof of new campus COD.
18
Louisiana / EntergySource verified
Meta Richland Parish / Entergy
Looks power-secured in narrative, but remains a regulated utility mega-build with approval and cost-allocation risk.
Claimed capacity
>2 GW compute; 2,260 MW generation package.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
regulated buildout approved, pending expansion
Demotion reason
LPSC order details, final cost allocation, expansion, gas-unit approval, and service terms still matter.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Entergy / Meta power plan
Buyer action
Do not call online; track approval stage, COD, and expansion filings.
19
PJM / AEP OhioSource verified
PowerConneX New Albany I/II
Behind-the-meter regulator row with useful public footprint, still conditional on gas and COD.
Claimed capacity
120 MW plus 216 MW.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
regulator BTM data center
Demotion reason
OPSB conditions, gas, load tie, and COD still need buyer-grade confirmation.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19New Albany natural-gas power page
Buyer action
Track as BTM regulator row; verify gas and COD.
20
PJM / AEP OhioSource verified
Socrates North/South / Will-Power
One of the cleaner behind-the-meter patterns, but customer identity and gas permits remain gates.
Claimed capacity
400 MW combined.
Source tier
Tier 2 official incomplete
Status
BTM counterparty unverified
Demotion reason
Counterparty, gas pipelines, conditions, Sidecat/Meta linkage, and COD remain unresolved.
Next docket / watch date
2026-09-19Williams Socrates power facilities
Buyer action
Verify customer, counterparty, gas, air, and COD before underwriting.
Watch calendar
These are the next moments when announced MW can become verified, conditioned, contested, or not decision-grade.
FERC 30-day informational reports
Capture RTO and ISO adequacy logic for new and existing large loads.
NERC computational-load responses
Watch modeling, protection, control, commissioning, SCADA, ramp, reconnect, and ride-through gaps.
FERC 60-day tariff response deadline
Main upgrade or demotion event for large-load tariffs, co-location treatment, behind-the-meter generation, and study rules.
Deficiency, protest, and permit follow-through
Track state/local permits, protests, rehearing requests, and rows that become conditioned or not decision-grade.
Source tier rules
Promotion needs official records. Demotion needs a named failed or unresolved gate. The public claim is judged, not the company.
Tier 1 official
FERC orders, eLibrary, eTariff, RTO tariff filings, state commission orders, signed service or interconnection documents, permits, and NERC alerts.
Tier 2 official incomplete
RTO planning slides, load forecasts, queue data, transmission plans, local board packets, and permit portals.
Tier 3 claim evidence
Company releases, investor decks, SEC filings, customer announcements, EPC or OEM awards.
Tier 4 lead only
Trade press, broker decks, social posts, geospatial hints, and public-meeting leads. Never promote from this tier alone.
Fixed-scope diligence sprint.
For a buyer, the output is a decision: reserve, condition, reprice, monitor, or walk before a false energization date reaches investment committee.
Output
- Five to twelve buyer-specific rows.
- One visible demotion, included by design.
- Source packet and next-source calendar for each row.
- Investment-committee action memo.
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Thesis
A dated thesis, not a take
One sub-industry, the binding constraint named, a probability with an interval, and the date it resolves.
Evidence
The data layer behind it
Research, patents, trade flows, and a live price channel, so the call rests on a constraint you can actually measure.
Watch
A kill-criterion you can watch
Every call names what would make it wrong and the signal to watch for it, so you can track the position as it plays out.
